86 districts that will change the outcome of 2021 election

Below you will find a list of 61 swing districts and 25 progressive won, but with a less than five percent margin, and our vote recommendation in each.

You can click on each recommendation to see more details.

Click here to read the methodology we used to make our recommendations. Or read this summarized version:

To come up with a recommendation I used:

  • Publicly available riding-level opinion polls data. Latest polls take precedence
  • 2019 election results, if supported by available opinion polls
  • When polling data conflicts with 2019 election results, I review previous election results (2004, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2015) for the riding voting trend and the reason behind the conflict.

Click here to find out what riding you're in, and to see if you're registered to vote.